World Football Elo before kick-off, and what the result did to it.
Expected score for Bulgaria: 46.8% (a draw counts half), home advantage included. An upset — the lower-rated side won.
Meeting 2 of 21, 1966–2021.
Before
After
Before
After
From Bulgaria's side.
| 2 Sep 2021 | Italy | 1–1 | Away | FIFA World Cup qualification 2021 | — |
| 28 Mar 2021 | Italy | 0–2 | Home | FIFA World Cup qualification 2021 | — |
| 6 Sep 2015 | Italy | 0–1 | Away | UEFA Euro qualification 2015 | — |
| 28 Mar 2015 | Italy | 2–2 | Home | UEFA Euro qualification 2015 | — |
| 6 Sep 2013 | Italy | 0–1 | Away | FIFA World Cup qualification 2013 | — |
| 7 Sep 2012 | Italy | 2–2 | Home | FIFA World Cup qualification 2012 | — |
| 9 Sep 2009 | Italy | 0–2 | Away | FIFA World Cup qualification 2009 | — |
| 11 Oct 2008 | Italy | 0–0 | Home | FIFA World Cup qualification 2008 | — |
| 22 Jun 2004 | Italy | 1–2 | Neutral | UEFA Euro 2004 | Group stage |
| 13 Jul 1994 | Italy | 1–2 | Neutral | FIFA World Cup 1994 | Semi-final |
| 25 Sep 1991 | Italy | 2–1 | Home | Friendly | — |
| 20 Sep 1989 | Italy | 0–4 | Away | Friendly | — |
| 31 May 1986 | Italy | 1–1 | Neutral | FIFA World Cup 1986 | Group stage |
| 23 Sep 1981 | Italy | 2–3 | Away | Friendly | — |
| 20 Sep 1978 | Italy | 0–1 | Away | Friendly | — |
| 29 Dec 1974 | Italy | 0–0 | Away | Friendly | — |
| 21 Jun 1972 | Italy | 1–1 | Home | Friendly | — |
| 24 May 1969 | Italy | 0–0 | Away | Friendly | — |
| 20 Apr 1968 | Italy | 0–2 | Away | UEFA Euro qualification 1968 | — |
| 6 Apr 1968 | Italy | 3–2 | Home | UEFA Euro qualification 1968 | — |
Score: openfootball · Scorers: openfootball · Line-ups: none · Cards: none